The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in the Northern European Plain reaching across the Urals through the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are expected around the Gulf of Ob and in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.
The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving southern nations in nearly normal conditions and some scattered, primarily moderate deficits across the north. Surpluses are forecast from Guinea east to southern Sudan, around the Gulf of Guinea, in East Africa, and from southern Gabon through northwestern Angola.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall leaving many areas with moderate deficit or normal conditions, but widespread, severe to exceptional anomalies will persist in Finland and around the Baltic Sea. Pockets of intense deficit will persist in central Ukraine, southeastern Germany, and central France. Areas of surplus include Ireland and the UK, and northern European Russia.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will diminish across the continent, though intense anomalies will persist in French Guiana, Suriname, Amapá and Pará, Brazil. Severe to extreme anomalies are forecast for São Paulo State. Anomalies elsewhere include deficits in Chile and north-central Venezuela, and surpluses in central Colombia, northern Peru, and Uruguay.
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