The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
The forecast through April indicates water deficits of varying intensity across many regions in northern Africa. Exceptional deficits will retreat from the Horn. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa, downgrading slightly. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or mild deficits.
The forecast through April indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City with deficits to the south, deficits near Ottawa and Regina, and surpluses near Toronto and Calgary. Exceptional deficits are forecast for much of northern Quebec. Surpluses are forecast for southern British Columbia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2019 through October 2020 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Brazil, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and Thailand. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: The Dakotas (US), Tanzania, Kenya, UK, Northern European Russia, and India. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 February 2020.
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