The forecast through July indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficits on the continent will shrink somewhat but deficits will dominate much of the northern bulk. Exceptional deficits are forecast for French Guiana, Suriname, and southern Venezuela, central Brazil, the southern Amazon Basin, many Brazilian rivers, and along the Pacific Coast from Lima through the Atacama Desert. Surpluses are expected to increase in Paraguay and will be exceptional in central Paraguay.
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The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink and downgrade significantly, though intense deficits are forecast for eastern Minas Gerais, Espíritu Santo, and São Paulo. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern states and will moderate but increase in the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname and French Guiana, and deficits of varying intensity for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru, Chile, eastern Bolivia, and Argentina. Surpluses will shrink in northern Bolivia, downgrade in central Paraguay, and moderate in northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2018 through November 2019 include: French Guiana, Finland, Latvia, Angola, Namibia, United Arab Emirates, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas, Texas, and Tennessee (US), Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2019.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink. Deficits are forecast for many other parts of Brazil, including intense deficits in Maranhão, eastern Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and along many rivers. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink, but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Amazonas and the center of the country, and intense deficits will emerge Central-West and Southeast states and along the São Francisco River. Other areas of deficit include Peru and Chile. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, with exceptional surpluses in eastern Uruguay.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably in Brazil, but intense deficits are expected across the north and moderate deficits in much of the rest of the country. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and in Peru, southern Bolivia, and Chile, where conditions may be exceptional. Surpluses will moderate in central Colombia; downgrade slightly in Huánuco, Peru; and shrink somewhat in Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months, but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela east of Lake Maracaibo and near the border with Guyana; southern Bolivia; and along a path beginning south of Lima, Peru, through northern Chile. Deficits in Argentina will moderate and surpluses will emerge in northern Buenos Aires Province.