The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will shrink overall but persist in several wide-reaching areas: the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, and from Oklahoma through Tennessee and south through Mississippi. Anomalies will be intense in South Dakota. Deficits are forecast in Florida and in the West.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2020 through December 2020 include: Chile, Brazil, French Guiana, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and Thailand. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, European Russia, India, and northern Pakistan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 April 2020.
The April Outlook indicates significant deviations from the norm in both precipitation and temperature for Russia. Conditions are forecast to be wetter than normal across a vast band of the Arctic region from the Barents Sea through the Laptev Sea and will include exceptional anomalies. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for most of the nation, and exceptional anomalies will dominate from the Ural Mountains to the Sea of Japan.
The forecast through May indicates widespread moderate-to-exceptional water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits are forecast for the Central Siberian Plateau, north and southeast of Lake Baikal, and in western Kazakhstan along the Caspian coast.
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