Cambodia continues to stand out through May in Southeast Asia with exceptional water deficit in the west. Surpluses are forecast for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and may be especially intense in western Myanmar, around the Gulf of Tonkin, central Philippines, and Brunei. Deficits will emerge in the southern tip of Sumatra and into Java, but are expected to nearly disappear in Papua New Guinea, persisting mainly around the Gulf of Papua. After May, surpluses in the region will retreat and Cambodia will return to near-normal conditions.
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Exceptional water deficits will persist in western Cambodia through April. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Sumatra, Java, western Borneo, and Papua New Guinea. Intense surpluses are forecast for western and eastern Myanmar, northern Laos, along the Mekong River until it reaches Cambodia, and central Philippines. Surpluses are also forecast for Vietnam, pockets of Thailand, Brunei, and northeastern Borneo. After April, surpluses will retreat, Cambodia will transition to near-normal, and deficits are expected in Malaysia, Sumatra, and western Borneo.
From April through June water deficits are forecast to emerge on Java, southern Sumatra, and southern Borneo, but will recede in Cambodia except for a pocket of exceptional deficits northeast of Tonlé Sap. Surpluses are forecast for central Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northeast Borneo, and Mindanao. After June, deficits are forecast for most of the region, with severe to exceptional deficits in Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Mindanao.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits forecast for Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea
For the next three months severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Cambodia, particularly in the west, and severe to extreme deficits will emerge throughout much of Thailand. Deficits are also forecast for southern Myanmar and Papua New Guinea. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Laos during this period and in Vietnam, though surpluses will dominate Vietnam’s central coast. After May deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of the region and are expected to be of greatest severity in Papua New Guinea and Indonesian Borneo.
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Surpluses in western Borneo will diminish by September while surpluses on Java, and Flores Island may persist longer. From November on, deficits will increase in extent and severity on the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, and will emerge in northeastern Borneo.