The forecast for May 2025 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2025 through January 2026 in northwestern and central Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Brazil, and northwestern to southeastern China. Areas expected to experience surplus include central and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, and portions of the Amazon rainforest.
In this installment of the Proof Point series, we detail current weather-related events affecting the Amazon rainforest and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts.
Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.
Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2020 through January 2021 include: Chile, Brazil, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and northern European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 4 May 2020.
The forecast through December indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Australia, but a broad path of severe to extreme deficit is forecast from Brisbane in the east past Melbourne in the south and in Tasmania. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional water deficits in eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland to Melbourne, including the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Deficits will shrink in Tasmania but will be severe. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2019 through May 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Tanzania, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern and northeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 September 2019
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