The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses from the Lower Mississippi region east to the Virginia coasts will shrink considerably, leaving anomalies primarily in Mississippi. Surpluses elsewhere include South Dakota, Nebraska, and western Montana. Deficits will downgrade in the Southwest and Northeast and persist in Florida.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of March 2020 through February 2021 include: Chile, Venezuela, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, northern European Russia, and Tennessee and Michigan in the US. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 June 2020.
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