The forecast through June indicates that surpluses East of the Mississippi will nearly disappear. Moderate deficits are forecast for the South Atlantic States and parts of the Deep South. Surpluses are forecast in the center of the country radiating from Nebraska and Iowa and will emerge in the Rockies with intense anomalies in many places, particularly Colorado. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast for nearly all of California as well as northern Arizona and much of Oregon.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2019 through December 2019 include: French Guiana, Brazil, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, Somalia, Angola, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: northern Iraq, western Iran, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2019.
Most notable in the forecast through May is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months and the emergence of surpluses in the West. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the center of the country but remain widespread in a broad path from southern Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico and will be intense in Kansas. Moderate surpluses will cover much of California, and many Rocky Mountain States will transition from deficit to surplus.
Most notable in the forecast through April is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months. Surpluses will, however, persist in a massive path down the center of the country from Wisconsin through Texas, and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountains, in California from San Francisco Bay to the southern border, and along the Missouri and Colorado Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in central Kansas, on the Arkansas River, and in central Texas.
Through February, widespread intense water surpluses will persist in the center of the country and in the east. Surpluses will cut a broad path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, passing through Iowa and reaching the eastern half of Texas. Surpluses are also forecast for the northern Ohio River Basin and in the east from southern New York through Florida’s Panhandle, and will be extreme in eastern Pennsylvania. Areas of deficit include: northern New York, northern Maine, southern Florida, northwestern Wyoming, Colorado, and western Oregon.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
For the next several months, water deficits will diminish overall but intense deficits are forecast for southern California, the Willamette Valley in Oregon, along the Arkansas River, and western Colorado. Areas of moderate deficit include northern Minnesota and from Missouri to the Gulf. Surpluses are forecast for northern Nebraska, the Black Hills of South Dakota, southern Montana, the Pecos River in New Mexico into Texas, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, coastal North Carolina, and much of Florida from Jacksonville past Lake Kissimmee.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
The near-term forecast indicates exceptional deficits in the Lower Mississippi Valley and deficits nearly as intense through the South Atlantic States. Widespread moderate deficits are forecast from southern California through eastern Texas, with severe deficits near Houston. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Great Lakes, and intense surpluses are forecast for eastern Nebraska, central Minnesota, and southeastern Idaho. After February deficits in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the South Atlantic State will moderate, deficits will spread in California, and widespread surpluses will emerge in the Northwest and along the Columbia, Missouri, and Yellowstone Rivers.
The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.