The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of September 2020 through August 2021 include: Venezuela, Brazil, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and southwestern India. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 December 2020.
The Outlook for December 2020 indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in Arctic Russia, and severe warm anomalies blanketing much of Canada’s vast northern environs. Arctic regions can also expect more precipitation. Indonesia, India, and south-central Brazil will be much warmer as well.
The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Northeast China and the Yellow and Yangtze Basins, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits will increase in northwestern and coastal southeastern China. Deficits are forecast in Japan and surpluses in North Korea.
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