SOUTH ASIA: INTENSE WATER DEFICITS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN MADHYA PRADESH & AFGHANISTAN
23 April 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast indicates intense water deficits in much of Afghanistan, with exceptional deficits blanketing half of the country north of the Helmand River. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan, but conditions are expected to be intense in western Baluchistan.
In India, severe deficits are forecast in the north surrounding Chandigarh, and in the Far Northeast. Moderate deficits are expected in the center of the country in Madhya Pradesh and in the southeastern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. In western Andhra Pradesh, however, extreme surplus is forecast in the Penner River watershed, and relatively mild surplus conditions are forecast along the Bay of Bengal north of Andhra Pradesh.
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions.
As is apparent in the map progression above, India is forecast to transition out of widespread, intense deficit to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficit is forecast through June in the central state of Madhya Pradesh. Exceptional surplus is forecast to re-emerge in the south in the western Penner River watershed in Andhra Pradesh. Surplus conditions are also forecast for the southernmost tip of India, Odisha in the east, Gujarat in the west, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh in the north, and along some rivers, including the Ganges watershed and the Narmada River.
Elsewhere in the region during this period, exceptional deficits in southern Afghanistan will downgrade somewhat but remain intense, and a large block of exceptional deficit will develop in the north between Herat, Mazari Sharif, and Kabul. Deficits in Pakistan will diminish, leaving primarily moderate deficits in the south with exceptional deficits near Karachi. Surplus conditions are forecast for central Nepal and much of Bangladesh.
From July through September, exceptional deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, covering the west and northwest, while conditions in neighboring Pakistan are expected to be merely mild. States in India’s Far Northeast will continue to see severe to exceptional deficits, particularly Assam, while deficits in central India moderate. India’s southernmost tip will transition from surplus to moderate deficit; moderate deficits will also emerge in the north and may be severe near Chandigarh. Aforementioned surplus conditions in India will diminish considerably, leaving moderate surplus in coastal Odisha. Moderate deficits are forecast for Bhutan; Bangladesh will transition from surplus to mild deficit; and, surpluses in Nepal will retreat except along the Gandaki River where conditions will be exceptional.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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