Through September, exceptional water deficits will increase in Afghanistan, reaching the southern border to dominate roughly two-thirds of the country. Deficits in southern Pakistan are expected to shrink and moderate; moderate surpluses are forecast along the Indus River in the north. In India, primarily moderate deficits will persist in a wide band across the center of the country, but may be more intense in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Deficits will increase and intensify in southern India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will shrink and downgrade.
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Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Afghanistan, retreating slightly in the north but increasing in the south. Pakistan should get a reprieve as intense deficits diminish considerably, leaving moderate to severe conditions in western Baluchistan. India will transition out of widespread deficit to milder conditions, with moderate deficits in the south and more severe deficits in the Far Northeast, particularly Assam. Surpluses will downgrade to moderate in West Bengal, and will shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh while remaining fairly intense, especially in Dhaka Division.
Exceptional water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan, while decreasing slightly. Deficits in Pakistan will generally moderate. India will transition from widespread water deficits to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficits are forecast surrounding Chandigarh, moderate deficits in Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Odisha, West Bengal, and along the Tapi River. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Gandaki River in Nepal. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Bangladesh.
India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.
Through May, intense water deficits are forecast for India’s northern half, moderate deficits in the south, with exceptional conditions in Karnataka along the Tungabhadra River. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and the western Penner River Basin in India, as well as Bangladesh and Nepal. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for western Maharashtra. Intense deficits are forecast for Afghanistan and southern Pakistan. After May, deficits in India will be mild in the north, moderate in the south, and mild surpluses will emerge across the middle.
A relatively consistent pattern of water anomalies is forecast from September through May characterized by exceptional deficits in central India and surpluses in Bangladesh, Nepal, and far eastern India. In the near-term, intense deficits are forecast in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh trailing west, east, and south. Deficits are also forecast in Karnataka, Goa, coastal Maharashtra, and southwestern Afghanistan and Pakistan. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in Bangladesh, Tripura, and Mizoram. Some severe surpluses are forecast to emerge near Bengaluru, Karnataka. After November, severe to extreme deficits are forecast to emerge in Arunachal Pradesh.
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge April through June across central and southern India. Deficits will also emerge near Karachi, Pakistan and will continue to emerge in western Pakistan. Surpluses are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and along the northern Indus River in Pakistan. From July through September deficits in India will decrease in intensity but increase in extent as deficits emerge in the Chambal River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in Madhya Pradesh. Moderate to severe deficits are also forecast to emerge throughout Bangladesh.
The March through May forecast indicates some relief from water deficit conditions for many parts of India. However, severe to extreme deficits are forecast to persist in Gujarat and moderate deficits are forecast in Uttarakhand, southern India, and Sri Lanka. Surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the eastern Ganges Basin, the eastern two-thirds of Nepal, and Bangladesh. Surpluses are also expected along the northern tributaries of the Indus River in Pakistan and in eastern Afghanistan.