India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
Water surpluses in Rajasthan, India are forecast to transition to both deficit and surplus in the next few months, while surpluses in the eastern Ganges basin persist. Surpluses are also forecast for: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. Deficits are forecast north of Delhi, in India’s southern tip, and in Sri Lanka. From January through March deficits in India’s north and south, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will diminish, but exceptional deficits are forecast in Gujarat.
Water surpluses are forecast to continue to emerge through May in India from southern Rajasthan along the Chambal River and its tributaries, eastward to the Yamuna River, to the Ganges River, and into Bangladesh. Surpluses are also forecast for Myanmar’s western coast through November and in Bangladesh through May. Deficits in southern India are forecast to become less severe after November, but deficits will emerge in Assam and surrounding states in the northeast. Deficits will persist in Gujarat through May becoming more severe from December on.
Water deficits are forecast for much of India, Pakistan, and western Afghanistan while surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, in central Nepal, Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and western Sri Lanka. Deficits may be especially severe in July throughout India’s southern half. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Ganges Basin in July, and exceptional surpluses are forecast along the northern Indus through Punjab, Pakistan in July and August. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan, northeastern Indian states, and Myanmar in August and continue to emerge through March.
The forecast indicates a transition in India from widespread and exceptional water deficits throughout the country to surpluses in India’s western midsection, in the Ganges Basin, and near Chennai. Surpluses are also forecast in India’s northernmost states and in much of Bangladesh. In general, water surpluses are forecast for eastern Afghanistan and deficits in the west. Deficits are expected to persist in southern Pakistan, and both deficits and surpluses are expected in the north.
Widespread water deficits are forecast in India through May, with exceptional deficits from Gujarat through Rajasthan, and in India's southern tip. From June through November a transition to moderate surpluses is forecast across central India; deficits are expected in Assam. Flooding is forecast in August along the Gandaki River in Nepal.