The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
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The forecast through May indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink in southern India but are expected along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka and in northern Kerala. Moderate deficits are forecast from Gujarat to Andhra Pradesh, and more intense pockets in Madhya Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northern India and the Gangetic Plain, Bangladesh, Nepal, northern Pakistan and the Indus River system, and Afghanistan.
The forecast through April indicates that, while exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and in the south will downgrade, widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast in western and southern India. Surpluses will re-emerge in Uttar Pradesh in the western Gangetic Plain. Other regions with surpluses include Mizoram (India), Bangladesh, Nepal, rivers in northern Pakistan, and around Kabul, Afghanistan.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in western and southern India with exceptional deficits in Gujarat and Karnataka. Surpluses are forecast for Uttar Pradesh into western Nepal, and in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. Exceptional deficits are forecast in southeastern Pakistan, moderate deficits in the southwest, and surpluses in the northeast. Surpluses are expected in Bangladesh and will be exceptional in Chittagong Division reaching into Mizoram, India.
Through February, exceptional water deficits are forecast in India from Gujarat through Maharashtra and Karnataka, and deficits of varying severity in many regions south of the Gangetic Plain and to the west in Rajasthan. In Pakistan, isolated intense deficits are possible in Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan, but conditions may be intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. In Bangladesh, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Chittagong.
The widespread exceptional water deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate through December though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan. In India, deficits will also moderate but will be intense along the Tungabhadra River in the southwest, and in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northernmost India, Uttar Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.
The near-term forecast through October indicates that exceptional deficits will nearly disappear in India but moderate to severe deficits will continue to emerge, covering much of the north/south extent of the country. Surpluses are forecast for Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and Mizoram. Deficits are forecast for southern Afghanistan, central and southern Pakistan, and eastern Bhutan. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in much of Bangladesh and central Nepal. Deficits in Sri Lanka will ameliorate, leaving moderate deficits in the east. Beyond October primarily moderate deficits will continue to emerge in central India through April 2018.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2017 through March 2018 include: Brazil, Europe, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, South Korea, Tasmania, and Mongolia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Gulf Coast and Idaho, La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Upper Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and the southern Yangtze River Basin. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 10 July 2017.
The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.