The forecast through September indicates that many parts of India will return to normal water conditions. However, deficits are forecast in southern Karnataka and in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses will increase in Gujarat and western Maharashtra. Widespread, intense surpluses will persist in Afghanistan, and surpluses in Pakistan will shrink but persist.
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The forecast through July indicates exceptional water deficits in coastal Maharashtra, and severe to extreme deficits in a vast stretch across central India including much of Madya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and southern Odisha. In the south, deficits will downgrade in Tamil Nadu but intensify in Karnataka. Surpluses will remain intense and widespread across central Afghanistan. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Pakistan.
The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
The forecast through May indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink in southern India but are expected along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka and in northern Kerala. Moderate deficits are forecast from Gujarat to Andhra Pradesh, and more intense pockets in Madhya Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northern India and the Gangetic Plain, Bangladesh, Nepal, northern Pakistan and the Indus River system, and Afghanistan.
India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.