The forecast through April indicates water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and southern Iran, and surpluses from Turkey through western Iran. Exceptional deficits will increase in western Oman, downgrade somewhat in Yemen, and moderate to severe deficits are expected in much of Saudi Arabia. Deficits will downgrade in United Arab Emirates and moderate deficits will emerge in Qatar.
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The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through December but intense deficits will persist in southern Iraq. Severe deficits are forecast for Georgia, Kuwait, most of Saudi Arabia, and into western United Arab Emirates. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Yemen, moderate to severe deficits in central and southern Iran, and mild deficits in the Levant.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are expected to moderate considerably through April, though deficits reaching extreme intensity are forecast in southeastern Iran. After April, deficits will increase overall in extent and severity, and are expected to be especially intense in Iran from the Persian Gulf to the Afghan border, and in southern Iraq near Basrah. Moderate deficits will emerge in Azerbaijan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2017 through October 2018 include: California, Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Venezuela, French Guiana, Gabon, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, European Russia, Tanzania, and Philippines. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 6 February 2018.
Widespread exceptional deficits are expected to moderate considerably through March, but intense deficits will continue to emerge in southeastern Turkey, Syria, Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast throughout Iran. Deficits in Qatar, UAE, and Yemen will downgrade to primarily moderate. After March, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to resume prior intensity and deficits will emerge throughout Turkey and in nearby Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, completing a picture of deficits blanketing the entire Middle East.
The October 2017 Outlook indicates a forecast of much warmer than normal temperatures in Yemen, Southeast Asia, western Africa, and La Paz, Bolivia. Eastern South Sudan is expected to be much cooler than normal. Intense wet anomalies are forecast for southern Henan and Shaanxi, China.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through August 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through February – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter. Extreme deficits are forecast for southern Oman from March through May.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through July indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East but these deficits are expected to be less severe from November through April than in the prior three months. However, after April the forecast shows the severity level increasing, especially on the Arabian Peninsula.