Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade through February though intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s western and eastern thirds and severe deficits in Saudi Arabia’s large south-central region of Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in western Iran north of the Red Sea and across the border into Iraq and will remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast along Iran’s western Caspian Sea coast; north of Kirkuk, Iraq; and in eastern Turkey.
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Through November extreme to exceptional deficits will dominate much of Saudi Arabia, southern and western Iraq, Kuwait, large pockets of southern Iran, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Levant. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Turkey and will be severe in central Turkey, along its northeastern coast, and through Georgia.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the Levant but remain intense in West Bank and Lebanon, and deficits will intensify on the Arabian Peninsula. In Turkey, deficits will downgrade and shrink somewhat but much of Turkey will continue in moderate to severe deficit with some pockets of greater intensity. Exceptional deficits will persist in southern Iraq, and severe deficits west of the Euphrates River. In Iran, deficits will increase and become more intense.
Over the next few months exceptional water deficits will diminish overall in the region but persist in southern Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits will spread in Turkey, and intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. After July, deficits in Turkey will moderate overall, but deficits of varying severity are forecast for many parts of the region and are expected to be especially intense in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, southern Iran, and West Bank.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink considerably through June, but deficits will increase overall as Turkey transitions from surplus to deficit and severe deficits emerge in Yemen and western Oman. Exceptional deficits will persist in southeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, northern Saudi Arabia, and along the Persian Gulf in Iran. Intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. In Iran deficits will downgrade but remain widespread. After June, deficits in Lebanon and West Bank will upgrade to exceptional.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink, though deficits in the region will increase overall, emerging in Turkey, Yemen, and Oman. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Iraq. Deficits will remain widespread in the bulk of Iran east of Tehran, with extreme conditions in southern Kerman Province. After May, deficits will emerge in eastern Turkey, joining those in the rest of the country, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are expected to moderate considerably through April, though deficits reaching extreme intensity are forecast in southeastern Iran. After April, deficits will increase overall in extent and severity, and are expected to be especially intense in Iran from the Persian Gulf to the Afghan border, and in southern Iraq near Basrah. Moderate deficits will emerge in Azerbaijan.
The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula though deficits will continue to emerge, reaching south into much of Yemen and southern Oman. Deficits in the Levant will downgrade to moderate. Exceptional deficits in Iraq west of the Euphrates are expected to become slightly less intense except in the south. Deficits will emerge throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of Iran. After November exceptional deficits are forecast to nearly disappear though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge.
Exceptional water deficits in the Middle East are forecast to nearly disappear after October though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge. Until then, however, extreme to exceptional deficits will blanket much of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates, much of Georgia, and a pocket of southwestern Turkey surrounding Antalya. After October significant deficits remain in the forecast for Georgia, northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, pockets of central Iran, and southwestern and eastern Yemen.