The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the coast. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain widespread. Central and northern Turkey will transition from surplus to moderate deficit.
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The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably, though an intense pocket will persist around Kuwait and deficits will be severe in Yemen. Surpluses will downgrade overall but exceptional surpluses are forecast for northern Syria; near Mosul, Iraq; along Iran’s Caspian Sea coast northeast of Tehran; and in Khuzestan, Iran.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the Levant but remain intense in West Bank and Lebanon, and deficits will intensify on the Arabian Peninsula. In Turkey, deficits will downgrade and shrink somewhat but much of Turkey will continue in moderate to severe deficit with some pockets of greater intensity. Exceptional deficits will persist in southern Iraq, and severe deficits west of the Euphrates River. In Iran, deficits will increase and become more intense.
The forecast through August indicates that exceptional water deficits in the northern Arabian Peninsula will shrink but deficits overall in the Peninsula will be widespread. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Lebanon, Israel, and West Bank. Deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout Turkey and Syria, though deficits in western Turkey will downgrade from exceptional. In southern Iran deficits will become more severe, reaching exceptional intensity in Kerman and neighboring provinces.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink considerably through June, but deficits will increase overall as Turkey transitions from surplus to deficit and severe deficits emerge in Yemen and western Oman. Exceptional deficits will persist in southeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, northern Saudi Arabia, and along the Persian Gulf in Iran. Intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. In Iran deficits will downgrade but remain widespread. After June, deficits in Lebanon and West Bank will upgrade to exceptional.
Widespread exceptional deficits are expected to moderate considerably through March, but intense deficits will continue to emerge in southeastern Turkey, Syria, Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast throughout Iran. Deficits in Qatar, UAE, and Yemen will downgrade to primarily moderate. After March, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to resume prior intensity and deficits will emerge throughout Turkey and in nearby Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, completing a picture of deficits blanketing the entire Middle East.
Widespread exceptional deficits observed in the prior three months are expected to moderate considerably through February, though extreme deficits are in the forecast for Lebanon and Israel. Deficits of slightly lesser intensity, but still severe, are forecast for southeastern Turkey, Syria, pockets throughout Iraq, central Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, and southwestern Yemen. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast nearly everywhere else. After February, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to ratchet up in intensity, and moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Turkey.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.