The forecast through October indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in southern Veracruz State, Mexico trailing into Chiapas, particularly in the regions of the Papaloapan and Coatzacoalcos Rivers in Veracruz. Areas of moderate surplus include northeastern Sonora between the Yaqui and Bavispe Rivers, northern Coahuila, and northern San Luis Potosí. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for Costa Rica and western Panama.
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Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Extreme water deficits expected along Mexico's Pacific Coast
The forecast through July indicates that intense water deficits observed in Mexico will downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, expected in Baja and along the Pacific Coast from Sinaloa through Guerrero. Severe deficits are forecast for Tabasco and moderate deficits elsewhere around the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate deficits are also expected in Guatemala, El Salvador, Haiti, and western Cuba.
The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for southern Mexico & Jamaica
The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.
Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.
Mexico will transition away from significant water deficits in the northwest but widespread, intense deficits will emerge across the south and in the east. Deficits may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in northeastern Sonora. In Central America surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and will emerge in Panama. Deficits are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for much of the Caribbean.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
In the next few months intense water deficits will continue to emerge in Baja, Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sonora and north-central Mexico. Relatively normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, but intense surplus conditions are forecast for Jamaica. Deficits in western Cuba will downgrade to mild. After June, severe deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Moderate surpluses will emerge along rivers in eastern Sonora, Mexico.