Though the extent of exceptional deficits in southern India is forecast to diminish February through April, deficits will emerge across the country’s mid-section in places which, in the prior three months, had seen normal or surplus water conditions. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Gujarat and northeast India; and in Karachi, Pakistan. Surpluses are forecast along major rivers in northeastern Pakistan, throughout Afghanistan, and in eastern Nepal. From May through July deficits in India will diminish considerably in severity except in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Afghanistan and may be exceptional in the Upper Helmand Basin.
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Exceptional water deficits will persist in southern India through February and will emerge in Gujarat and persist through May. Surpluses in the Chambal and Ganges Basins will transition to both deficits and surpluses through February, after which surpluses are forecast in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Surpluses are forecast in western Myanmar through February, and in Nepal and Bangladesh through May. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Pakistan through February.