The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
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The forecast through July indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficits on the continent will shrink somewhat but deficits will dominate much of the northern bulk. Exceptional deficits are forecast for French Guiana, Suriname, and southern Venezuela, central Brazil, the southern Amazon Basin, many Brazilian rivers, and along the Pacific Coast from Lima through the Atacama Desert. Surpluses are expected to increase in Paraguay and will be exceptional in central Paraguay.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink and downgrade significantly, though intense deficits are forecast for eastern Minas Gerais, Espíritu Santo, and São Paulo. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern states and will moderate but increase in the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname and French Guiana, and deficits of varying intensity for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru, Chile, eastern Bolivia, and Argentina. Surpluses will shrink in northern Bolivia, downgrade in central Paraguay, and moderate in northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
The extent of exceptional water deficit in the region will diminish considerably through December, though deficits will cover most of Brazil and will be intense across the north, in Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Paraná. Intense deficits are also forecast in Bolivia from east of La Paz through Cochabamba to the south, and from southern Peru through the Atacama Desert in northern Chile past Santiago. Surpluses will persist in Uruguay, and in Entre Rios and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina, and will emerge in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably in Brazil, but intense deficits are expected across the north and moderate deficits in much of the rest of the country. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and in Peru, southern Bolivia, and Chile, where conditions may be exceptional. Surpluses will moderate in central Colombia; downgrade slightly in Huánuco, Peru; and shrink somewhat in Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina.
Exceptional deficits will diminish in South America over the next several months but large pockets of intense deficit are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits are also expected to be intense in: northern and southeastern Venezuela; western Ecuador; western Peru; most of Chile, especially the Atacama Desert and Bío Bío; and, Río Chubut in Patagonian Argentina. Surpluses will downgrade in central and eastern Colombia, but will be severe.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months, but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela east of Lake Maracaibo and near the border with Guyana; southern Bolivia; and along a path beginning south of Lima, Peru, through northern Chile. Deficits in Argentina will moderate and surpluses will emerge in northern Buenos Aires Province.