*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

In the next few months, exceptional water deficits will retreat in northwestern Mexico but persist in southern Baja and emerge in Nayarit. Severe deficits are forecast in the north-central states and along the Rio Grande. Some pockets of surplus are expected in southern Mexico and northern Guatemala, and more intense surpluses in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Severe deficit is forecast for western Cuba and the Bahamas. After April, deficits will downgrade in southern Baja and surpluses will emerge in western Mexico from Durango into Oaxaca.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Intense water deficits across northwestern Mexico are expected to moderate from January through March, but moderate to severe deficits will spread in the north-central states. Intense deficits will emerge in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. After March, deficits are forecast in northern Mexico, moderate surpluses along the southwestern coast, and surpluses in Central America will diminish. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits to moderate in W Cuba, emerge in Oaxaca

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits to moderate in W Cuba, emerge in Oaxaca

Intense water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. In the near-term, exceptional deficits across northwestern Mexico will moderate but severe deficits will emerge further south coast-to-coast from Jalisco through Veracruz and also in Oaxaca. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. After February intense deficits will emerge in southern Baja and Nayarit, Mexico but much of southern Mexico will return to nearly normal water conditions with scattered pockets of surplus. 

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Nicaragua

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Nicaragua

Though intense water surpluses will persist in Central America, the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish. Deficits will continue to emerge in pockets across northern Mexico, diminishing in Sonora but emerging with greater severity in Chihuahua. Surpluses in northern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon will begin to transition to both deficit and surplus. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and Guatemala. After January, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Jalisco, Mexico, and deficits across the northern states will diminish.

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Honduras & El Salvador

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Honduras & El Salvador

Exceptional water deficits in Cuba are forecast to retreat through December, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Tamaulipas, Mexico, and other pockets across the north. The extent of exceptional surpluses in Central America is expected to shrink, but surpluses remain in the forecast and may be especially intense in Honduras. After December moderate deficits will continue to emerge in northern Mexico with more severe deficits in Tamaulipas. Surpluses will persist in Central America but will begin to transition to deficits in El Salvador.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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