The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
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Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Jamaica; surpluses in Coahuila MX & Nicaragua
For the next three months, water surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico, and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Intense surpluses are forecast in Nicaragua. Areas of deficit include: the Rio Grande in Chihuahua, northern Yucatan, western Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast for Coahuila, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, & Zacatecas, Mexico
The forecast through December indicates pockets of intense water deficit in Mexican states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and across to the Pacific. Moderate deficits are forecast for Yucatan and Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. Surpluses will persist in Coahuila, and will increase in northern Sinaloa, western Chihuahua, and from Zacatecas through Mexico City. Surpluses are expected in eastern Guatemala and eastern Costa Rica. Deficits in Cuba will moderate.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for southern Mexico & Jamaica
The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.
Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.
Mexico will transition away from significant water deficits in the northwest but widespread, intense deficits will emerge across the south and in the east. Deficits may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in northeastern Sonora. In Central America surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and will emerge in Panama. Deficits are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for much of the Caribbean.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
In the next few months intense water deficits will continue to emerge in Baja, Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sonora and north-central Mexico. Relatively normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, but intense surplus conditions are forecast for Jamaica. Deficits in western Cuba will downgrade to mild. After June, severe deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Moderate surpluses will emerge along rivers in eastern Sonora, Mexico.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.