The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast through October indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in southern Veracruz State, Mexico trailing into Chiapas, particularly in the regions of the Papaloapan and Coatzacoalcos Rivers in Veracruz. Areas of moderate surplus include northeastern Sonora between the Yaqui and Bavispe Rivers, northern Coahuila, and northern San Luis Potosí. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for Costa Rica and western Panama.
The forecast through September indicates nearly normal water conditions in northern Mexico with some mild deficits in Baja and moderate surpluses in northeastern Sonora, northern Coahuila, and northern San Luis Potosí. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast from Guanajuato through Chiapas. Deficits are expected in central Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti. Moderate surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua and central Panama.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
The forecast through July indicates that intense water deficits observed in Mexico will downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, expected in Baja and along the Pacific Coast from Sinaloa through Guerrero. Severe deficits are forecast for Tabasco and moderate deficits elsewhere around the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate deficits are also expected in Guatemala, El Salvador, Haiti, and western Cuba.
The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
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