The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
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In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
In the next few months, exceptional water deficits will retreat in northwestern Mexico but persist in southern Baja and emerge in Nayarit. Severe deficits are forecast in the north-central states and along the Rio Grande. Some pockets of surplus are expected in southern Mexico and northern Guatemala, and more intense surpluses in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Severe deficit is forecast for western Cuba and the Bahamas. After April, deficits will downgrade in southern Baja and surpluses will emerge in western Mexico from Durango into Oaxaca.
Intense water deficits across northwestern Mexico are expected to moderate from January through March, but moderate to severe deficits will spread in the north-central states. Intense deficits will emerge in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. After March, deficits are forecast in northern Mexico, moderate surpluses along the southwestern coast, and surpluses in Central America will diminish.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2017 through September 2018 include: Missouri (US), Brazil, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Turkmenistan, Inner Mongolia (China), and South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 January 2018.
Intense water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. In the near-term, exceptional deficits across northwestern Mexico will moderate but severe deficits will emerge further south coast-to-coast from Jalisco through Veracruz and also in Oaxaca. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. After February intense deficits will emerge in southern Baja and Nayarit, Mexico but much of southern Mexico will return to nearly normal water conditions with scattered pockets of surplus.
Though intense water surpluses will persist in Central America, the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish. Deficits will continue to emerge in pockets across northern Mexico, diminishing in Sonora but emerging with greater severity in Chihuahua. Surpluses in northern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon will begin to transition to both deficit and surplus. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and Guatemala. After January, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Jalisco, Mexico, and deficits across the northern states will diminish.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.
Water deficits are forecast to continue in much of Mexico, increasing in extent and severity through February 2018. For the next few months exceptional deficits are forecast in Nayarit, along with deficits of varying severity in other states including Hidalgo, Michoacán, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas. Surpluses in Central America are expected diminish but will remain in the forecast through November in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
Water deficits of modest severity are forecast throughout many parts of Mexico over the next six months with pockets of exceptional deficits in Oaxaca, Yucatán, Guerrero, Michoacán, western Jalisco, and Nayarit. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to persist in western Cuba and emerge in eastern Cuba and in Jamaica through February. Deficits will persist in Guatemala; surpluses will persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica but may transition to both surplus and deficit.