The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink in Europe though remain widespread in the U.K., Ireland, and northern European Russia, and will be intense in Ireland and Russia. Intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, western Ukraine, and eastern Bulgaria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of December 2019 through November 2020 include: Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Cambodia, and Kazakhstan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, UK, European Russia, Syria, Iran, and Northern Pakistan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 March 2020.
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