The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
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Notable in the near-term forecast is the retreat of water surplus in Central Europe and a transition to moderate deficit. Deficits in Northern Europe are expected to persist and increase, with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will remain intense in Hungary, southern Romania, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria, and will increase in Ukraine. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Ireland and the UK, and will spread on the Iberian Peninsula. After June, mild deficits are forecast for Central Europe, more intense deficits in Northern Europe, and surplus in the western Iberian Peninsula.
Water deficits of varying severity are forecast to persist in western, northern, and Mediterranean nations of Europe, and to emerge eastward in the next three months. Surpluses are forecast to diminish in Eastern Europe and western European Russia, persist in eastern Romania and Moldova, and emerge in Murmansk (Russia) and northwestern Sweden. Except for Finland and Estonia, where deficits will remain exceptional, the forecast for August through October indicates an overall reduction in the extent and severity of deficits.
Water deficits of varying severity are expected to prevail in much of Europe through September with exceptional deficits forecast for southern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Denmark. Other countries where deficits are expected to be intense include Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, and Macedonia. The intensity of deficits is expected to decrease slightly after June.
For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe, and though the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Surpluses are forecast for European Russia. After November, water surpluses will emerge across Northern Europe, western European Russia from St. Petersburg to the White Sea, and in the Volga Basin.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, southern Mexico, Chile, Central and Eastern Europe, North Africa, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Siberia, Gujarat, Cambodia, South Korea, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Louisiana; Paraguay; European Russia and the Volga Basin; the Chambal, Yamuna, and Ganges Rivers in India; Bangladesh; western Myanmar; Laos; and the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2016.
Water deficits are forecast to persist over the next several months in Finland, southern Norway and Sweden, the Baltics, eastern Germany, Eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Mediterranean. Water surpluses are forecast to persist, though diminished in extent and severity, in the United Kingdom, northern France and across the border into Germany. From November on, a transition to water surpluses across Northern Europe, the Baltics, European Russia, and later, Central Europe, is forecast. Deficits remain in the forecast for countries along the Mediterranean Sea through April.
Water deficits are forecast through September in parts of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, the Baltics, southern Norway and Sweden, and Finland. Surpluses are expected in northern France and across the border into Germany, Belgium, and in southern Netherlands. From October on, surpluses are expected to emerge, first in Scotland, Germany, Norway and Sweden; and later in other parts of Central Europe, the Baltics, and Finland. Deficits are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, eastern Ontario, Veracruz, Guatemala, central Brazil, the Baltics, North Africa, northern Zambia, southern India, Thailand, Cambodia, the Mekong Delta, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: eastern Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska, northern France, Tanzania, Kazakhstan, the northern Indus River in Pakistan, and the Yangtze River. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 July 2016.
Water surpluses are forecast through August for northeastern France; northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain; and North Yorkshire, United Kingdom. Water deficits are forecast for Germany, Poland, western Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, Mediterranean Spain, Corsica, the Peloponnese region of Greece, and Crete. Deficits are expected to persist in Finland and the Baltics. With the exception of deficits in Finland, both deficits and surpluses throughout Europe are forecast to diminish in severity after August.