The extent of exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Moderate to severe deficits will increase in Northeast China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of the Yellow River. Exceptional surpluses in eastern Qinghai will begin to moderate, and surpluses in the Yangtze River Basin will diminish and downgrade. Though exceptional deficits will shrink in Southeast China, intense deficits are forecast. Deficits will downgrade in North Korea and moderate surpluses will expand in South Korea.
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Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and Liaoning are expected to moderate in the near term – September through November. Widespread surpluses are expected to persist in southern China from Poyang Lake in Jiangxi southwest through Hunan into Guangxi and Yunnan, and the western Pearl River Delta, though the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish considerably. The coastal southeast will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, a trend which is forecast to continue through May. After November, surpluses in Jiangxi through Yunnan will continue to diminish.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia into Northeast China, on the Korean Peninsula, and in Honshu, Japan are expected to moderate in the near term – August through October – but severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in the northeast and moderate deficits will emerge from southern Gansu to the East China Sea. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of southern China. After October intense deficits in northwestern China will increase in extent, in Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and deficits of lesser severity will continue to emerge in the Northeast China and in the North China Plain.