The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
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The August Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures in much of Europe reaching exceptional intensity in parts of Central Europe and southern Scandinavia. Precipitation is expected to be above average in Greece, Italy, and across the Mediterranean into Algeria.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.
Water surpluses are expected to persist in many provinces of China along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River through September though surpluses will not be as severe or widespread as in previous months. In November southeast China will begin to transition from surplus to moderate deficit which will gradually encompass much of the country. Deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula in October. By November deficits in Japan will spread in Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu.
Water surpluses are expected to persist, though diminish in severity, in many provinces of China along the Yangtze River and south in the coming months, and then transition to moderate deficits beginning in November. Severe surpluses are forecast along the Yellow River in June. Deficits are forecast in Hainan June through August. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Hokkaido, central Honshu, and Shikoku, Japan from June through August, and deficits may continue to emerge in some areas of Japan through February.