The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
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The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and Liaoning are expected to moderate in the near term – September through November. Widespread surpluses are expected to persist in southern China from Poyang Lake in Jiangxi southwest through Hunan into Guangxi and Yunnan, and the western Pearl River Delta, though the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish considerably. The coastal southeast will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, a trend which is forecast to continue through May. After November, surpluses in Jiangxi through Yunnan will continue to diminish.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia into Northeast China, on the Korean Peninsula, and in Honshu, Japan are expected to moderate in the near term – August through October – but severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in the northeast and moderate deficits will emerge from southern Gansu to the East China Sea. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of southern China. After October intense deficits in northwestern China will increase in extent, in Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and deficits of lesser severity will continue to emerge in the Northeast China and in the North China Plain.
Water surpluses in the Yangtze Basin are forecast to diminish in extent from September through November, while to the south surpluses in the Pearl River basin will increase. Water deficits are expected to increase from the Shandong Peninsula westward to the Tibetan Plateau, and deficits are also forecast for Shanghai. Elsewhere in the region deficits are forecast in Taiwan and South Korea during this period; surpluses are forecast for Hokkaido, Japan. From December through February surpluses along the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers will moderate.
Regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the coming months include: United States, Mexico, Central America, South America, Europe, Iran, Coastal West Africa, Southern Africa, Tanzania, Southeast Asia and the Pacific, Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 October 2015.