This month’s WSIM In Focus highlights two emerging stories–an increasing water emergency in the American West, and divergent impacts across sub-Saharan Africa where ENSO is suppressing the rainy season in the drought-stricken Horn while prolonging flooding in the southeast.

NOAA recently announced the possibility of an emerging Super El Niño during the 2026 summer and fall seasons. It has the potential to be one of the strongest on record; equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are projected to exceed 2.7°C above average.

Deficits are forecast for the United States, Canada, Brazil, Europe, northern Africa, northwestern China, and Indonesia. Surpluses are forecast for southern Europe, Turkey, southern Africa, and northern Australia.

Deficits are forecast for the Lower Mississippi Basin, central Brazil, northern Africa, northern Russia, and western China. Supluses are focecast for the Iberian Peninsula, Greece, southern Africa, and northern Australia.

Deficits are forecast for Canada, southeast United States, Brazil, northern Africa, Central Asia, and northwestern China. Surpluses are forecast for the western Amazon, portions of southern Europe, the Sahel, southern Africa, and northern Australia.