Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N ...

The forecast expects exceptional deficits in western and eastern Russia to mostly diminish, but still linger in isolated areas. Similar deficits are expected to continue northwest of Lake Baikal. Intense surplus is anticipated in regions of northern Kazakhstan and northeastern Russia, as are exceptional deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 

Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N Kazakhstan, NE Russia

Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Nayarit and Tabasco

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Nayarit and Tabasco

Intense water deficits in Mexico and western Cuba are forecast to retreat after July. However, severe to exceptional deficits remain in the forecast for northern Baja, in Nayarit, and peppered along the Gulf of Mexico from Tamaulipas through Tabasco. Surpluses are forecast for the border of Guatemala and Honduras, and in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and western Jamaica. After October deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico; surpluses in Central America are forecast to diminish to near-normal conditions.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Nayarit, Puerto Vallarta, Puebla

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Nayarit, Puerto Vallarta, Puebla

Recent severe water deficits across Mexico and western Cuba are expected to diminish in the next few months, shifting toward the south and bringing moderate deficit conditions to Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and western Nicaragua by October. Surplus conditions in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast to subside after September. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in much of Mexico, esp Baja

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in much of Mexico, esp Baja

Recent severe water deficits across Mexico are expected to subside somewhat through August, shifting toward the south and bringing moderate deficit conditions to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. These conditions are forecast to persist into early 2018. Surplus conditions in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica should subside and moderate by the final forecast period. Exceptional surplus conditions in central Cuba and Haiti are forecast to persist but moderate slightly by early 2018.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja California & Nayarit

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja California & Nayarit

Though water deficits are forecast for Mexico over the next six months, they are expected to be primarily moderate, a significant improvement over the prior three months. Through July deficits are forecast in northwestern Mexico; scattered down the Pacific coast and central Mexico; in Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas; and southern Guatemala. After July deficits will continue to emerge in Baja California, Mexico’s southern states, and northern Central America. Some modest surpluses are forecast to emerge in the north along the border of Sonora and Chihuahua. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Baja & Sonora

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Baja & Sonora

Exceptional water deficits are expected to nearly disappear in Mexico April through June, with moderate deficits persisting in Chiapas and Tabasco. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in the Baja Peninsula and Sonora and moderate deficits will emerge in Guatemala. From July through September moderate to extreme deficits are forecast to re-emerge in southern Mexico, persist in northern Baja, and emerge in Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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