The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast in Mexico from March through May in Nayarit, Michoacán, and southern Puebla into northern Oaxaca. Deficits are also forecast for the Yucatán Peninsula, the Baja Peninsula, northern Mexico, and Guatemala. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. After May the extent and severity of deficits in Mexico will decrease but moderate deficits are forecast to persist in the south and emerge in Central America.
Water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mexico, with a vast expanse of severe deficits across northern Mexico including the Baja Peninsula and pockets of more intense deficits in the southern states and in Yucatan and Quintana Roo. Deficits are also forecast for southern Guatemala, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and eastern Dominican Republic. Deficits in the region are expected to diminish in severity after April.
The forecast through March indicates scattered moderate water deficits throughout much of Mexico with pockets of exceptional deficits in the south and the Yucatan Peninsula. Deficits will persist in Guatemala and emerge in eastern Jamaica. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Haiti.
Water deficits of modest severity are forecast throughout many parts of Mexico over the next six months with pockets of exceptional deficits in Oaxaca, Yucatán, Guerrero, Michoacán, western Jalisco, and Nayarit. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to persist in western Cuba and emerge in eastern Cuba and in Jamaica through February. Deficits will persist in Guatemala; surpluses will persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica but may transition to both surplus and deficit.
Water deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout much of Mexico from November through January, with pockets of exceptional deficit in Oaxaca. Deficits will persist in Guatemala, and surpluses are forecast in eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. From February through April deficits in across northern Mexico will diminish, but moderate to exceptional deficits will persist in the southern states of Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and parts of the Yucatán. Surpluses will persist in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
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