The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
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Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for southern Mexico & Jamaica
The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.
Mexico will transition away from significant water deficits in the northwest but widespread, intense deficits will emerge across the south and in the east. Deficits may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in northeastern Sonora. In Central America surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and will emerge in Panama. Deficits are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for much of the Caribbean.
In the next few months intense water deficits will continue to emerge in Baja, Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sonora and north-central Mexico. Relatively normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, but intense surplus conditions are forecast for Jamaica. Deficits in western Cuba will downgrade to mild. After June, severe deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Moderate surpluses will emerge along rivers in eastern Sonora, Mexico.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja, Mexico will remain intense, with exceptional deficits emerging in the south. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also forecast for Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, along with deficits slightly less severe in Chihuahua. Surpluses of varying severity will continue to emerge in pockets of southern Mexico leading into northern Guatemala and Belize, where conditions may be extreme. Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast for Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
Though there are several regions with a July forecast of significant precipitation anomalies - India's Western Ghats will be much drier than normal and northern Argentina will be much wetter - the temperature forecast has more severe and widespread anomalies. The African Sahel, Saudi Arabia, and Mongolia are among the numerous regions forecast to see much warmer than normal temperatures.
Though water deficits are forecast for Mexico over the next six months, they are expected to be primarily moderate, a significant improvement over the prior three months. Through July deficits are forecast in northwestern Mexico; scattered down the Pacific coast and central Mexico; in Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas; and southern Guatemala. After July deficits will continue to emerge in Baja California, Mexico’s southern states, and northern Central America. Some modest surpluses are forecast to emerge in the north along the border of Sonora and Chihuahua.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through September with greatest extent and severity in July. Deficits are forecast in southern Mexico during this period and are expected to be of exceptional severity along the southern Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz, Tabasco, and Oaxaca. Deficits are also forecast in Guatemala and El Salvador, Jamaica and Haiti, and after September may emerge in Belize, Honduras, western Nicaragua and eastern Panama.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through August and emerge around the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan and southward into Central America. Thereafter moderate deficits are expected to emerge throughout much of southern Mexico. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti.
The outlook for June 2016 shows a dominant pattern of many severe to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures - particularly in Brazil, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia - along with a few pockets cooler than normal. Exceptional wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. Severe to extreme wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Texas, Mexico, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Dry anomalies are forecast for portions of Uruguay, Brazil, Spain, Ethiopia, and India.