*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Middle East

Middle East: Widespread deficits forecast to persist, esp Israel & Lebanon

Middle East: Widespread deficits forecast to persist, esp Israel & Lebanon

Widespread exceptional deficits observed in the prior three months are expected to moderate considerably through February, though extreme deficits are in the forecast for Lebanon and Israel. Deficits of slightly lesser intensity, but still severe, are forecast for southeastern Turkey, Syria, pockets throughout Iraq, central Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, and southwestern Yemen. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast nearly everywhere else. After February, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to ratchet up in intensity, and moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Turkey. 

Middle East: Water deficits persist in Sana'a & Aden, Yemen

Middle East: Water deficits persist in Sana'a & Aden, Yemen

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear in the near-term leaving primarily moderate to severe deficits across the region. Severe deficits are forecast November through January along stretches of the Euphrates River, and deficits of greater intensity are expected along Turkey’s northern coast and in southwestern and southeastern Yemen. Overall, water deficits will diminish slightly in extent and intensity from February through April.

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits retreat, but severe deficits remain

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits retreat, but severe deficits remain

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.

Middle East: Intense deficits to persist on the Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Intense deficits to persist on the Arabian Peninsula

The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula though deficits will continue to emerge, reaching south into much of Yemen and southern Oman. Deficits in the Levant will downgrade to moderate. Exceptional deficits in Iraq west of the Euphrates are expected to become slightly less intense except in the south. Deficits will emerge throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of Iran. After November exceptional deficits are forecast to nearly disappear though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge.

Middle East: Water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula will moderate after October

Middle East: Water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula will moderate after October

Exceptional water deficits in the Middle East are forecast to nearly disappear after October though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge. Until then, however, extreme to exceptional deficits will blanket much of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates, much of Georgia, and a pocket of southwestern Turkey surrounding Antalya. After October significant deficits remain in the forecast for Georgia, northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, pockets of central Iran, and southwestern and eastern Yemen. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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