The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula though deficits will continue to emerge, reaching south into much of Yemen and southern Oman. Deficits in the Levant will downgrade to moderate. Exceptional deficits in Iraq west of the Euphrates are expected to become slightly less intense except in the south. Deficits will emerge throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of Iran. After November exceptional deficits are forecast to nearly disappear though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge.
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Exceptional water deficits in the Middle East are forecast to nearly disappear after October though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge. Until then, however, extreme to exceptional deficits will blanket much of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates, much of Georgia, and a pocket of southwestern Turkey surrounding Antalya. After October significant deficits remain in the forecast for Georgia, northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, pockets of central Iran, and southwestern and eastern Yemen.
Widespread intense water deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula through September, gradually diminishing in extent and severity thereafter. From July through September exceptional deficits will persist across central Saudi Arabia, in southern Iraq, and in Lebanon, and severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Iraq west of the Euphrates, and North Khorasan, Iran. Surpluses in Fars and near Tehran, Iran will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus, receding by early next year. Surpluses along the northern Iran/Iraq border will persist through December, and a pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman will persist through March 2018.
Exceptional water deficits spanning the Arabian Peninsula are expected to continue through November affecting southern Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, all of Yemen, and most of Oman. Conditions are expected to moderate in early 2018. Moderate to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq extending into Iran should subside by December. Exceptional surpluses in south central Iran are expected to persist through the forecast period before moderating between December and February 2018. A pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman persists throughout the forecast period into 2018.