Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2018

4 June 2018

OVERVIEW
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In Africa, significantly wetter than normal conditions are forecast for Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, southern Congo, Angola's isolated northern province of Cabinda, and westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo. Some moderate to extreme wet anomalies are expected in central Tanzania reaching into northern Zambia. Primarily moderate wet anomalies are forecast across much of Chad and southern Sudan, as well as in Mediterranean Algeria, the northern Ethiopian Highlands, west of Lake Turkana in Kenya, and central Madagascar.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Scattered dry anomalies are predicted in West Africa and may reach extreme intensity in Senegal and western Guinea.

Conditions in Europe are expected to be relatively normal with some moderate wet anomalies in Spain and pockets of France.

In the Middle East, wetter than normal conditions are forecast for western Iran, some pockets of Iraq east of the Euphrates, and across the breadth of southern Turkey. Turkey's northwestern coast along the Black Sea will be drier than normal.

Primarily moderate wet anomalies are forecast for central India fanning throughout much of the northern bulk of the country and into western Nepal and central Pakistan, as well as along India's Arabian Sea coast from the Gulf of Cambay south of Gujarat to Kerala. Bhutan, neighboring regions in India, and northern Myanmar are expected to be drier than normal with anomalies reaching extreme or even exceptional intensity in pockets.

Dry anomalies ranging from moderate to exceptional are predicted for southernmost Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Far eastern Cambodia may see severe wet anomalies, and wet anomalies of lesser intensity are forecast along the border of Thailand and Laos and in northeastern Vietnam. A pocket of fairly intense dry anomalies is forecast in southern Vietnam in the southeastern Central Highlands.

In South America, dry anomalies are forecast for northern Colombia, north-central Venezuela, and some of Brazil's easternmost states. Anomalies could be exceptional in northern Colombia. Moderate to extreme wet anomalies are expected in a broad, diagonal path in the center of the continent enveloping Brazil's borders with Bolivia and Paraguay and reaching east to São Paulo. 

Southern Mexico, Honduras, and the Caribbean will see drier than normal conditions.

Some moderate dry anomalies are expected in the US West, and moderate wet anomalies in the Southeast.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
A large block of exceptional warm anomalies is forecast for Northeast China and well into Russia, with severe warm anomalies on the Korean Peninsula and moderate to severe warm anomalies in Japan. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in many large pockets of China. Regions where anomalies will be intense include southern China, and also Hong Kong and Taiwan. Warm anomalies are forecast for Mongolia and a vast area of Russia including the Central Siberian Plateau.

Warm anomalies are expected to be very intense in Malaysia and Indonesia. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for the island of New Guinea, parts of the Philippines, northern Laos, and Myanmar, where anomalies could be exceptional in the north. 

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Moderately warmer than normal conditions are predicted across Australia's southern coast and along the southern half of the eastern coast.

In South Asia, India's Far Northeast is expected to be much warmer than normal, as will Bhutan and India's northern state of Jammu and Kashmir. Intense warm anomalies are also forecast for parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Cooler than normal conditions are forecast for western Nepal and much of eastern India. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan and western Tajikistan, while anomalies may be more severe in central Kyrgyzstan and eastern Tajikistan.

In the Middle East, severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for the southern half of the Arabian Peninsula, central and southern Iran, with cool anomalies in northwest Iran leading into Iraq.

With the exception of the Iberian Peninsula, warm anomalies are expected throughout much of Europe, reaching extreme or exceptional intensity in southern Italy, Albania, and Iceland. Cool anomalies are expected in the Volga Basin in European Russia.

In Africa, warm anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional are forecast for Libya, southeastern Algeria, northern Niger into Chad, Egypt, and northwestern Sudan. Warm anomalies are also forecast in West Africa around the Gulf of Guinea and may reach exceptional intensity in southern Nigeria. Parts of Madagascar are expected to be warmer than normal, particularly in the northeast. Large pockets of cool anomalies are forecast for Central and East Africa including exceptionally cooler than normal conditions in South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the border of Uganda and Kenya.

In South America, warm anomalies are expected in Brazil and may be exceptional in the center of the country and extreme in several of the easternmost states. Exceptional warm anomalies are also expected in northwestern Colombia, and pockets of intense warm anomalies are expected along a path tracing the Cordillera Occidental Mountains in western Peru into southeastern Bolivia, and also in northern Chile. Some mild cool anomalies are forecast for Paraguay and surrounding regions.

Northern Mexico is forecast to be moderately warmer than normal, as are southern Guatemala and El Salvador. Eastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua may be somewhat cooler than the norm.

In the US, moderately warmer than normal conditions are expected in the Southwest, and in the northern Midwest. Intense warm anomalies are forecast in southern Maine, a pocket of central Louisiana, and reaching from northern Alaska well into Canada's Northwest Territories.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 4, 2018 which includes forecasts for June 2018 through February 2019 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2018.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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