In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
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Central Siberian Plateau
Through July, water surpluses will shrink in European Russia. The Lower Ob will transition from surplus to mild deficit, moderate to exceptional deficits will develop in the Middle Ob region, and surpluses in the Upper Ob region will downgrade. Surpluses will downgrade in the Tom River Basin, upgrade on the Ishim River, and persist on the Irtysh. Intense surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and may be severe along the Amu Darya and Zaravshan Rivers.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia, with exceptional water deficits reaching from the Upper Taz River past the Yenisei River to the Lower Tunguska. Surpluses are forecast between the Volga River in Samara Oblast and the Belaya River in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and in Kyrgyzstan. Moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west. Severe deficits are forecast for south-central Uzbekistan and into northern Turkmenistan.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Kazakhstan, down the middle of Kazakhstan through Karagandy Region, and in Kyrgyzstan. From May through July deficits will increase southwest of Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, exceptional surpluses will emerge between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers, and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast October through December in Russia from west of the Yamal Peninsula through the Central Siberian Plateau, and exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, eastern Kyrgyzstan, and central and northeastern Kazakhstan. Moderate surpluses will emerge near the Gulf of Ob in Russia and to the southwest. Water deficits in eastern Turkmenistan and eastern Uzbekistan are forecast to diminish in severity. From January through March aforementioned exceptional water deficits in Russia will diminish as will surpluses in the Volga Basin. Surpluses are expected to persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan.
Widespread water deficits in Russia from Arkhangelsk through the Central Siberian Plateau are forecast to persist, though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish in the next few months. Water surpluses in Kazakhstan will begin to transition to conditions of both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are expected to continue to emerge in the Volga River Basin through February, and in Kyrgyzstan through May.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, southern Mexico, Chile, Central and Eastern Europe, North Africa, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Siberia, Gujarat, Cambodia, South Korea, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Louisiana; Paraguay; European Russia and the Volga Basin; the Chambal, Yamuna, and Ganges Rivers in India; Bangladesh; western Myanmar; Laos; and the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2016.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist along rivers in Kazakhstan through March, though a transition to both deficits and surpluses is forecast January through March as abnormal to moderate deficits begin to emerge across the country. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and parts of Uzbekistan are expected to persist through September, diminish in October, after which moderate deficits will re-emerge throughout both countries in November. A vast expanse of moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September across northern Russia from the White Sea through much of the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin during this period which are expected to be especially widespread and severe in October.
Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan and Central Russia, deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan through November, with greatest severity in March.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; coastal West Africa; western Turkey; Yemen; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains and southern Florida, US; northwestern Mexico; central Argentina; Ireland; Kenya; central Kazakhstan; Java; and southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 March 2016.