The forecast through February indicates intense water surpluses on the Ob, Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers in Russia. Surpluses will be widespread in the Middle Ob region and the Yenisei River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, reaching across the northern border into the Ural River watershed in Russia. Surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and along the Zerafshon River in Ubekistan. Deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and central Kyrgyzstan.
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The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.
In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist along rivers in Kazakhstan through March, though a transition to both deficits and surpluses is forecast January through March as abnormal to moderate deficits begin to emerge across the country. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and parts of Uzbekistan are expected to persist through September, diminish in October, after which moderate deficits will re-emerge throughout both countries in November. A vast expanse of moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September across northern Russia from the White Sea through much of the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin during this period which are expected to be especially widespread and severe in October.
Water deficits are forecast to persist in many parts of the Middle East through February – particularly the Arabian Peninsula – though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish. Cyprus is forecast to transition out of exceptional deficit after May, while deficits in Qatar and United Arab Emirates may become more severe for the next six months. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits across southern Turkey are expected to linger through November before diminishing in severity.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan; farther west between the Ural and Emba Rivers northeast of the Caspian Sea; and, along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast in Russia in an area northwest of Kazakhstan, from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Water deficits are forecast in southern Turkey, Cyprus, Gaza, West Bank, Israel, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Exceptional deficits will emerge in May in Qatar and United Arab Emirates, persisting with varying extent and severity through October.
The water forecast includes a variety of conditions in the Mideast, though water deficits remain the dominate factor. Deficits are forecast across southern Turkey, Cyprus, much of Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and western Oman. Deficits of varying severity are forecast across Saudi Arabia and in Yemen as well, but both deficits and surpluses are predicted in some areas. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast.
Middle East: Widespread water deficits forecast, including exceptional deficits in Yemen and western Oman
Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey through October 2016. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey. Exceptional water deficits are forecast on the Arabian Peninsula in April, encompassing all of Yemen and western Oman.
Middle East: Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey through September, Surpluses along the Iraq-Iran border and northeast Turkey
Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey through September. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey.