Through July, water surpluses will shrink in European Russia. The Lower Ob will transition from surplus to mild deficit, moderate to exceptional deficits will develop in the Middle Ob region, and surpluses in the Upper Ob region will downgrade. Surpluses will downgrade in the Tom River Basin, upgrade on the Ishim River, and persist on the Irtysh. Intense surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and may be severe along the Amu Darya and Zaravshan Rivers.
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Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.
The forecast through March indicates exceptional surpluses in European Russia, along the Middle Ob River, the Tom River Basin, and Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Yenisei River. Exceptional deficits are expected in the Yamal Peninsula. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After March, surpluses in Russia are forecast to diminish. Deficits will downgrade in Yamal, persist in Turkmenistan, and spread in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Caucasus, western Kyrgyzstan and western Tajikistan.
In the near-term, surpluses are forecast in Russia along the Sukona River; the Upper Volga River, Volga Uplands, Lower Volga, and Transvolga Region; and the Ob, Vakh, and Tom Rivers. Deficits will persist in the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in Aktobe, Kostanay, and western Akmola Regions in Kazakhstan but widespread intense deficits will emerge in the northeastern part of the country. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to moderate. After February, deficits will spread in Central Asia and Russia.
Water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western European Russia, the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins, and the Transvolga Region, where conditions of both deficit and surplus may emerge. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to diminish considerably leaving only mild deficits through December.
Water surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Russia stretching from western European Russia to the Western Siberian Plain through April 2018 and are expected to be exceptional in large pockets of the Volga Basin and between the Upper Ob and Tom Rivers surrounding Novosibirsk from August 2017 through January 2018. In the near-term, August through October, deficit conditions in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to ameliorate, leaving modest deficits. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Kyrgyzstan, including Bishkek.
In Russia large pockets of exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Volga River Basin and from the Lower Ob River to the Tom River, persisting through March 2018. Deficits will continue to emerge in much of eastern Russia through March, though they are not expected to reach exceptional severity beyond September. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge from the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau from October through March. Surpluses will persist in many parts of Kazakhstan and throughout Kyrgyzstan. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan through December, diminishing thereafter.
Widespread exceptional water deficits in northern Russia observed in the prior three months are forecast to retreat May through July. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the Yamal Peninsula to the Sea of Okhotsk. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, the Irtysh, and between the Ob and the Tom Rivers. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and central Uzbekistan. Beyond July the forecast shows a similar geographic distribution of anomalies but with some changes in conditions.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2017 through January 2018 include: Florida (US), Brazil, northern Chile, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho (US), La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), and Kazakhstan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2017.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia, with exceptional water deficits reaching from the Upper Taz River past the Yenisei River to the Lower Tunguska. Surpluses are forecast between the Volga River in Samara Oblast and the Belaya River in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and in Kyrgyzstan. Moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west. Severe deficits are forecast for south-central Uzbekistan and into northern Turkmenistan.