The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.
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Amu Darya River
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.
Through July, water surpluses will shrink in European Russia. The Lower Ob will transition from surplus to mild deficit, moderate to exceptional deficits will develop in the Middle Ob region, and surpluses in the Upper Ob region will downgrade. Surpluses will downgrade in the Tom River Basin, upgrade on the Ishim River, and persist on the Irtysh. Intense surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and may be severe along the Amu Darya and Zaravshan Rivers.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.