Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N ...

The forecast expects exceptional deficits in western and eastern Russia to mostly diminish, but still linger in isolated areas. Similar deficits are expected to continue northwest of Lake Baikal. Intense surplus is anticipated in regions of northern Kazakhstan and northeastern Russia, as are exceptional deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 

Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N Kazakhstan, NE Russia

Medan

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Retreat of water surpluses forecast

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Retreat of water surpluses forecast

Though a significant retreat of exceptional water surplus in the region is forecast through October, exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast for: western Myanmar; eastern Thailand into southern Laos; and, southeastern Sulawesi and Sumbawa and Flores Islands in Indonesia. Exceptional deficits are forecast for a large block of western Cambodia, and deficits of varying severity are forecast for the Mekong Delta, southern Thailand, Singapore, Malaysian Borneo, southern Sumatra, and pockets in central Papua New Guinea. After October, near-normal conditions are expected in many parts of the region and deficits in western Cambodia will moderate.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia and Mekong Delta

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia and Mekong Delta

The July through September forecast shows the near absence of widespread surpluses observed in prior months. However, exceptional surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar; northern Prachuap Khiri Khan Province, Thailand; the extreme southeastern region of Sulawesi; and Flores Island in Indonesia. Severe to exceptional deficits are indicated in much of Cambodia, in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, and in central Papua New Guinea. In the October-December timeframe moderate deficits are indicated in many parts of the region, and thereafter deficits in Southeast Asia may intensity.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Much of the region has experienced exceptional water surplus conditions in the most recent observations. These moderate in the near-term forecast and subside completely September through February 2018. Recently observed exceptional deficits in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea subside during the June through August period. In the December through February 2018 forecast period deficits may emerge over mainland Malaysia and coastal Myanmar.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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