The forecast through August 2019 indicates that intense water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will disappear leaving mild deficits or nearly normal conditions. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia, transitioning to deficits in Borneo, Sumatra, and Java. Deficits will downgrade in Papua New Guinea but will be severe.
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Papua New Guinea
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade from exceptional but remain widespread and severe in Thailand and moderate in Cambodia. Prior surpluses in Southeast Asia and Indonesia will nearly disappear as deficits emerge. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand, Malaysia, Borneo, pockets of Sumatra, southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade but will be widespread and severe, and deficits will emerge in much of Southeast Asia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Philippines, northeastern Borneo, and scattered pockets of Indonesia. Exceptional deficits will persist around the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea. Surpluses will downgrade slightly in north-central New Guinea around Jayapura.
The forecast through April indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink slightly, deficits in Thailand will downgrade, and moderate deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar. Deficits are also forecast for the Philippines, eastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, pockets of Sumatra, and central New Guinea. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam with exceptional conditions in the north including Hanoi, and in north-central Laos.
The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will persist in western Cambodia and Thailand, emerge in the Philippines, and increase in Papua New Guinea. Deficits will be exceptional in Cambodia. Areas of surpluses include: northern Laos, northern Vietnam and parts of the Central Highlands, Malaysia, Sumatra, and northwestern Borneo. Surpluses may be intense in Riau and Jambi, Sumatra, and along the Kapuas River in Borneo.
The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses will shrink but intense surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Cambodia. Deficits will increase in Thailand and will emerge in eastern and southern Sumatra and on smaller islands in the region. Philippines will transition from surplus to deficit. Deficits in Papua New Guinea, though downgrading, will remain severe.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but remain intense in Myanmar and Laos. Extreme to exceptional deficits will increase in western Cambodia, and deficits of generally lesser severity will spread throughout much of Thailand. Deficits will increase in Malaysia, downgrade in Java and Papua New Guinea, and emerge in central Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and East Timor.
Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.