The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits will retreat from Quebec’s Ottawa-Gatineau Watershed; surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit; and deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in Alberta will become exceptional. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Intense surpluses will emerge in the Columbia River Basin in British Columbia, and deficits near Vancouver will persist but downgrade.
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The major changes forecast through May are that exceptional water deficits will shrink in Quebec though large pockets will persist, and widespread surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit. As for major population areas, intense deficits are forecast for Southern Ontario and through southern Quebec; near Vancouver, British Columbia; near Winnipeg, Manitoba; and surrounding Regina, Saskatchewan. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many parts of the country. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the southeast and transition to deficit in the southwest.
Through December, exceptional water deficits in the east will shrink somewhat, and moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in much of northern Ontario with intense deficits in the northwest. Deficits will diminish considerably in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces, though moderate deficits will linger in southern Manitoba and will emerge along the North Saskatchewan River. Elsewhere in the west the pattern of anomalies will remain much the same as in the prior three months.
Water deficits are forecast for much of the eastern half of the country and will increase on the Ontario/Quebec border corridor. Widespread, intense surpluses will emerge in southeastern British Columbia (BC), particularly surrounding Kamloops and Kelowna. Intense deficits will continue to emerge around Prince George, BC. Deficits in the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta will intensify, becoming exceptional. Exceptional surplus conditions will persist from Fort McMurray, Alberta to Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan, and around Fort St. John in the Peace River Region of northeastern BC.
Widespread, intense water surpluses will emerge in southern British Columbia. Northern Quebec is expected to transition from surplus to normal conditions and moderate deficit. Nearly normal conditions will return to Northern Ontario’s Albany River region. Significant deficits are forecast along the Ontario/Quebec border corridor, surrounding Lake Mistassini QC, the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC.
The forecast through April indicates water conditions much the same as in the prior three months, with some overall shrinkage of anomalies in the eastern half of the country. One notable difference is the emergence of widespread intense surplus conditions in southern British Columbia. After April, much of the eastern half of the country will transition to deficit, retaining exceptional deficits in eastern Quebec, central Quebec, and the central Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits in the western provinces will diminish slightly, and intense surpluses will persist in parts of southern BC.
The near-term forecast indicates a pattern of water anomalies much like the prior three months. Widespread surpluses will continue in northeastern Quebec, central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan and into Alberta, the central border of Alberta and British Columbia, and southeastern BC. Deficit areas include: central Quebec and the Ontario/Quebec border; northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba; and southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. After March, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will transition to deficit.
While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.
The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.
The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits in the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will persist in northeastern Manitoba and are forecast for much of Alberta, where they may be more intense north of Banff National Park in the southwest and may persist through February 2018 or longer. Surpluses in Southern Ontario north of Kitchener and in Ottawa are expected to diminish, and deficits are forecast for much of Northern Ontario. Deficits will persist in New Brunswick, and emerge in Quebec east of the St. Lawrence River.