The forecast through May indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in Cambodia and Thailand, but deficits will remain widespread and severe deficits will emerge in northern Thailand. Intense deficits will emerge in southern Myanmar, the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, central Laos, southern Vietnam, Philippines, and northeastern Borneo. Deficits will persist in Papua New Guinea. Areas of surplus include western Myanmar, Indonesian Borneo and Java.
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The forecast through April indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink slightly, deficits in Thailand will downgrade, and moderate deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar. Deficits are also forecast for the Philippines, eastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, pockets of Sumatra, and central New Guinea. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam with exceptional conditions in the north including Hanoi, and in north-central Laos.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
From April through June water deficits are forecast to emerge on Java, southern Sumatra, and southern Borneo, but will recede in Cambodia except for a pocket of exceptional deficits northeast of Tonlé Sap. Surpluses are forecast for central Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northeast Borneo, and Mindanao. After June, deficits are forecast for most of the region, with severe to exceptional deficits in Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Mindanao.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2017 through December 2017 include: Arkansas and Florida (US), Quebec (Canada), Brazil, Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Tamil Nadu (India), Borneo, and New Guinea. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho and the Pacific Northwest (US), southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta (Botswana), northeastern Pakistan, between the Irtysh and Tom Rivers (Russia), central Vietnam, and eastern Queensland (Australia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 April 2017.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through February, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through May. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through February in Laos and in central Vietnam through May. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for the next three months in the southern Malay Peninsula, Java, southern Vietnam, and Gorontalo, Indonesia.
The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Surpluses in western Borneo will diminish by September while surpluses on Java, and Flores Island may persist longer. From November on, deficits will increase in extent and severity on the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, and will emerge in northeastern Borneo.
The August forecast indicates widespread severe to exceptional warm anomalies across vast stretches of northern South America, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Southeast Asia, with anomalies of lesser severity in many other parts of the world. Scattered precipitation anomalies include dry anomalies in Nepal and in Amapá, Brazil. Wet anomalies are predicted for the island of New Guinea, eastern Kyrgyzstan, China's Taklamakan Desert, Arizona, and Sonora.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits forecast for Thailand, Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, Timor
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit through March 2017, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in the Mekong Delta in July, and are forecast for Timor through October. Surpluses in western Borneo will gradually diminish through September as will surpluses on Java and Flores Island, though they may persist longer. Sumatra will transition from surplus to deficit beginning in September.