A sixty-year record of extreme weather conditions shows a disturbing pattern of deficit surface water conditions throughout Amazonia.The Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM) developed by ISCIENCES LLC is used to examine average monthly hydrological conditions throughout the basin. An apparent correlation with the emergence of temperature extremes over the same period begs the question whether man-made climate change is the root cause.The literature however points to man-made deforestation as the critical factor, raising concern that "the Amazon is losing the ability to control it's own climate." If true, consequences will have profound impact on the region and the global environment.
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- Exceptional drought will persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest;
- Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses;
- Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana;
- A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward; and,
- Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.
Exceptional water surpluses are expected in Tanzania beginning in November 2015. Surpluses may also affect rivers in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda.
Water surpluses forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, and Bolivia.
Exceptional water deficits may persist in coastal Peru and Chile, extending a 3 year period of exceptional deficits. Drought related socioeconomic impacts are intensifying.
Regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the coming months include: United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Europe, Coastal West Africa, Southern Africa, Tanzania, Iran, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 July 2015.
Global Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for July 2015 #temperature #precipitation #forecast #cfsv2 #elnino
Exceptionally high temperatures are expected to dominate the global outlook for July 2015, including: Western US and Canada; Central America, west coast of South America, and Brazil; much of Europe; southern Africa; northeast India and Myanmar; Indonesia and Malaysia; and, northeast Siberia. The July outlook for global precipitation shows both exceptional surpluses and deficits. Surpluses are expected in: the US Southwest and Central Plains; northwestern Mexico; Western Amazonia and southern Brazil; and, northern Australia. Dryness is forecast for: southern Mexico; parts of Central America; parts of northern South America; Central and Eastern Europe; the Horn of Africa and Yemen; Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua Guinea, and the Philippines; and, northern China.
The current forecast for Jordan for the 3-month period ending October 2015 has moderated from the prior forecast. Though much of Jordan is expected to experience deficits, those deficits are not expected to be exceptional.