*Special Topics
ISciences staff
Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign ...

The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.

Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign of more extreme heat-driven drought to come
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024

The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size. 

East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads ...

The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads throughout Maritime SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

The forecast indicates that most exceptional deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will dissipate, though some regions are expected to experience lingering deficits. India is expected to observe widespread surplus throughout the country. 

South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

ISciences

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Is the Past Decade of Persistent Drought In Brazil a New Normal?

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A sixty-year record of extreme weather conditions shows a disturbing pattern of deficit surface water conditions throughout Amazonia.The Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM) developed by ISCIENCES LLC is used to examine average monthly hydrological conditions throughout the basin. An apparent correlation with the emergence of temperature extremes over the same period begs the question whether man-made climate change is the root cause.The literature however points to man-made deforestation as the critical factor, raising concern that "the Amazon is losing the ability to control it's own climate." If true, consequences will have profound impact on the region and the global environment.

United States: Water Forecast Indicates Deficits in the Northwest, Surpluses in the Central Plains

  • Exceptional drought will persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest;
  • Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses;
  • Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana;
  • A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward; and,
  • Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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