ISciences is transitioning production of our monthly Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List reports to use outputs from a new version of our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). WSIMv2 makes use of more recent and publicly available input datasets and uses a revised methodology for calculating composite water anomalies.
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Severe to exceptional water deficits will continue to emerge in the South and South Atlantic states through September, with moderate deficits in the Northeast and in the Ohio River Valley, though deficits are expected to diminish somewhat in severity after June. Moderate deficits may emerge on the Arkansas and Colorado Rivers and moderate to severe deficits in northern Colorado from June through September. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Idaho through June, along with surpluses of varying intensity in the Pacific Northwest and California. After June the extent and severity of these surpluses is forecast to diminish.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Moderate water deficits to continue in much of Mexico, emerge in Guatemala
Overall much of Mexico will experience drier than normal conditions. However, exceptional deficits in Baja and across the Gulf of California observed for the past three months are forecast to diminish in the months ahead. From August through October deficits will increase in severity in the state of Veracruz in a wide inland arc from the Gulf of Mexico. Deficits are also forecast during this period for eastern Jamaica and in Haiti. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Water deficits across North Africa are forecast to persist though diminish in severity. Deficits will also persist across much of southern Africa, especially South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Surpluses are expected in northern Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Southern California, northern Brazil, Zambia, South Africa, southern Namibia, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, and the island of Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: East Africa, northern Kazakhstan, Southeast China, western Borneo, and western Java. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2016.
Zambia is forecast to experience continued severe and increasing loss of electricity generating capacity at least until December 2016, according to ISciences WSIM Electricity Assessment. The WSIM Electricity Assessment is produced monthly and shows current and forecast estimated power losses globally for the next nine months.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: much of Canada, the Mississippi Valley, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa; western Turkey; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains, US; central Argentina; Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania; southeast India; and northwestern Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 January 2016.
Widespread water deficits are forecast for much of Iran through March 2016, though deficits will vary in severity. Provinces along the Persian Gulf may continue to experience deficits through September. Beginning in October the most intense deficits shift towards the central and eastern portions of Iran.
- Exceptional drought will persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest;
- Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses;
- Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana;
- A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward; and,
- Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.
Regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the coming months include: United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Europe, Coastal West Africa, Southern Africa, Tanzania, Iran, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 July 2015.