Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
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The forecast through March indicates a vast block of exceptional water deficits in southern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, and a path of intense deficits stretching to China’s western border. Beijing, Hebei, and western Liaoning will also see exceptional deficits, and deficits are forecast in Shandong and Shanxi. Other areas of deficits include Henan, Hubei, Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, eastern Yunnan, and Hong Kong. Surpluses in Southeast China will increase, with exceptional surpluses forecast on the Lower and Middle Yangtze River and in Jiangxi, Hunan, and into eastern Guangxi.
The near-term forecast through November indicates intense surpluses in China’s Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces; along the Yellow River; in Shaanxi, southern Gansu, and Qinghai; and in Tibet. Surpluses are also forecast for southern China and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across much of Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin, South Korea, and southwestern Japan.
Through the next several months, widespread water surpluses in the center of China will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses further east in Hubei, Henan, and Anhui will transition to mild deficit. In the south, moderate to severe surpluses will increase in Yunnan and western Guangxi. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Southeast China. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in Liaoning and Jilin in the northeast, and will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and Honshu, Japan.
Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in Northeast China; downgrade to mild in Shandong; and continue to emerge in the Southeast. Surpluses in the Yangtze Basin will diminish considerably, though exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Han River Basin. Hainan will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, as will Guangxi. Moderate deficit is forecast for North Korea. After June, water anomalies in China and Mongolia will downgrade overall.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and Liaoning are expected to moderate in the near term – September through November. Widespread surpluses are expected to persist in southern China from Poyang Lake in Jiangxi southwest through Hunan into Guangxi and Yunnan, and the western Pearl River Delta, though the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish considerably. The coastal southeast will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, a trend which is forecast to continue through May. After November, surpluses in Jiangxi through Yunnan will continue to diminish.
The September Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures - conditions we'd expect to see once in 20 to 40 years - in many regions of the world including India's southern half, coastal West Africa, and the eastern Amazon Basin. Much drier than normal conditions are forecast for central India.