The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
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The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
The near-term forecast through November indicates intense surpluses in China’s Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces; along the Yellow River; in Shaanxi, southern Gansu, and Qinghai; and in Tibet. Surpluses are also forecast for southern China and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across much of Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin, South Korea, and southwestern Japan.
Through the next several months, widespread water surpluses in the center of China will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses further east in Hubei, Henan, and Anhui will transition to mild deficit. In the south, moderate to severe surpluses will increase in Yunnan and western Guangxi. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Southeast China. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in Liaoning and Jilin in the northeast, and will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and Honshu, Japan.
Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
The extent of exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Moderate to severe deficits will increase in Northeast China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of the Yellow River. Exceptional surpluses in eastern Qinghai will begin to moderate, and surpluses in the Yangtze River Basin will diminish and downgrade. Though exceptional deficits will shrink in Southeast China, intense deficits are forecast. Deficits will downgrade in North Korea and moderate surpluses will expand in South Korea.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in Northeast China; downgrade to mild in Shandong; and continue to emerge in the Southeast. Surpluses in the Yangtze Basin will diminish considerably, though exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Han River Basin. Hainan will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, as will Guangxi. Moderate deficit is forecast for North Korea. After June, water anomalies in China and Mongolia will downgrade overall.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.