The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the coast. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain widespread. Central and northern Turkey will transition from surplus to moderate deficit.
The forecast through June indicates that the exceptional water deficits that have dominated much of Australia in prior months will nearly disappear, though intense anomalies are forecast in the north. Primarily moderate deficits are expected from Adelaide through Victoria and along rivers in the Murray-Darling system. Deficits are expected to be more intense in northeastern New South Wales, Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, New Zealand, and New Caledonia.
The forecast through June indicates that surpluses East of the Mississippi will nearly disappear. Moderate deficits are forecast for the South Atlantic States and parts of the Deep South. Surpluses are forecast in the center of the country radiating from Nebraska and Iowa and will emerge in the Rockies with intense anomalies in many places, particularly Colorado. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast for nearly all of California as well as northern Arizona and much of Oregon.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2019 through December 2019 include: French Guiana, Brazil, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, Somalia, Angola, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: northern Iraq, western Iran, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2019.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
