The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
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Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge across northern Africa from April through June; deficits of lesser severity are forecast across Africa’s mid-section. Deficits in the Horn of Africa, DRC, and Angola are expected to downgrade to primarily moderate severity. Surpluses are expected in southeast Sudan into South Sudan, southeastern Tanzania, western Zambia, the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, and northern Madagascar. After June deficits across northern Africa are forecast to recede slightly overall, but severe to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southern Somalia, and moderate to severe deficits may emerge in northeast Namibia.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2017 through December 2017 include: Arkansas and Florida (US), Quebec (Canada), Brazil, Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Tamil Nadu (India), Borneo, and New Guinea. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho and the Pacific Northwest (US), southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta (Botswana), northeastern Pakistan, between the Irtysh and Tom Rivers (Russia), central Vietnam, and eastern Queensland (Australia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 April 2017.