The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
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Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Significant water deficits will continue to emerge across the north, though exceptional deficits will shrink. Deficits will diminish in central and southern Africa but remain intense in Gabon, southeastern DRC, Zambia, and west-central Madagascar. Southern Africa will downgrade to mild deficit. Surpluses will persist in southernmost Sudan, downgrade along the White Nile, increase in Kenya, and emerge in eastern Uganda, Ethiopia, and along the Jubba and Shabelle Rivers through southern Somalia. Exceptional surplus will persist in Tanzania.
A notable improvement is forecast for southern Africa and the Horn of Africa where conditions will transition from intense to mild water deficit. Intense deficits are, however, forecast scattered across the southern Sahara and the Sahel, and in a stretch from southern Democratic Republic of the Congo through eastern Zambia into Malawi. Deficits of varying severity remain dominant in many other regions, but surpluses are forecast for northeastern South Sudan and Tanzania, and will be exceptional in Tanzania. After April, severe deficits will emerge across northern Africa and will persist in Zambia.